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20.11.08 - Latest NAV performance

13.11.08 - Investment Bulletin

12.11.08 - Latest Fund Factsheets

07.11.08 - Pick of the Week

05.11.08 - 'Old Europe'

 

Fund Prices (20 Nov 2008)

A Share

£  88.41

£130.57

£132.16

£  81.01

£101.77

£  64.08

B Share

£  86.36

£128.05

£130.84

£  76.25

£101.03

£108.86

Funds under Management - £176.7 million

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Global Stock Writeups

 

Telekom Malaysia has been a long-term laggard, despite a strong portfolio of assets - the domination of fixed line and internet connection domestically, as well as good market shares in mobile in Malaysia, Singapore, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and several other smaller economies. Management have finally found a way to realise this value by breaking up the company into a solid, cash generating fixed line business which will take the debt, and a high-growth mobile business. This catalyst should drive a re-rating.

Sedol Type Price Date
6868398 Buy MYR 10.328 07/11/2007

 

The sugar and sucralose producer has been sold; the former is of minor interest, the latter a world-beating, unique product for use in many ingredients (essentially because, whether heated or chilled, its flavour does not change nor does it combine with other ingredients resulting in a change of taste). Management however have suffered from hubris, over-expansion, and a series of profit warnings in 2007. Subsequently the business stabilised and has started to grow again; the share price responded accordingly, assisted by a break-up specialist appearing on the register, resulting in a 20% plus rise against a weak market. Having hit its new price target, there was no further reason to hang on.

Tate & Lyle is currently seeing strong earnings growth from its patented Splenda Sucralose product; with demand currently far outstripping their capacity they are able to generate high prices and margins for this product. Many are wary that this growth is not sustainable; we would agree that over the medium term a competitive and effective substitute product will likely come to market, but it will likely take at least 3 years for this to occur and in the meantime the robustness of Tate & Lyle's patents has been proven by Wal-Mart's back-down after it attempted to sell Splenda as an own brand product. The market is well aware of the negative impact that the new EU sugar regime will have on Tate & Lyle's core business; yet again this is not a major threat to near term profits. Even assuming continued margin decline and zero sales growth in the core business, we believe that the current share price does not adequately reflect the strength of the Splenda Sucralose business and on a sum of the parts basis we see sufficient upside to warrant this a BUY.

Sedol Type Price Date

0875413

Sell £ 4.824 05/02/2008

0875413

Buy £ 5.701 15/06/2006

0875413

Buy £ 5.597 25/04/2006

0875413

Buy £ 4.897 09/11/2005

0875413

Buy £ 4.65 19/10/2005

0875413

Buy £ 4.628 26/09/2005

 

TF1. The French Government has announced refoms in the TV market, to bring the country into line with the rest of Europe. As one of the two private sector broadcasters (Vivendi's CANAL+ being the other), TF1 should benefit from: more advertising time being allowed, a reduction in the French content rules (much of which TF1 has to fund but is never aired as quality is often poor), and improved profitability of the free channels. Cost-cutting has also commenced by the new CEO; about time too. The balance sheet is fine, with a small possibility of corporate excitement.

Sedol Type Price Date
5997118 Buy EUR 18.212 14/11/2007

 

Two problems - management sales of shares in large numbers, even just before securing the all-important Cessna contract, and a pending decision by the prosecutor's office on various events two years ago. Throw in a credit cycle squeeze, and city-type boys may buy fewer toys, hence we exited.

A stake was bought in Thielert AG, which is the world's sole accredited manufacturer of aircraft piston engines that can run on diesel or kerosene, or a mixture thereof. Conventional piston engines run on AVGAS, which is facing environmental headwinds as it is leaded fuel. AVGAS availability is limted in many developing parts of the world, and in the West opposition to it is growing. Cessna and other leading aircraft manufacturers have just signed agreements allowing Thielert engines to be installed on new aircrafty, rather than as retor-fit kits. Thielert also supplies parts to manufacturers of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) for the US Department of Defence. Concerns over the company's high levels of working capital (brought on by contracts with long lead-times growing faster than revenue received) created an ideal buying opportunity in a company that is likely to dominate a fast-growing global market.

Sedol Type Price Date
B0P7D39 Sell EUR 19.155 09 August 2007
B0P7D39 Buy EUR 22.404 29 March 2007


 

Tokyo Tatemono is a Tokyo-based real estate developer which has the strongest land bank in the sector - it already has acquired 90% of the land it needs for 2007 condominium sales. As vacancy rates continue to fall and rental income rises we expect conditions in the sector to remain favourable over the coming 2-3 years, even if we do conservatively assume a slow-down in rental growth rates. Tokyo Tatemono is well-placed to benefit from this, and assuming further yield compression we see 38% upside in the company's adjusted net asset value.

Sedol Type Price Date
6895426 Buy JPY 1400.303 08/05/2006

 

Tokyu Store Chain has been a massive disappointment.  Much hope was pinned on the opening of more warehouses sorting out their distribution, reducing working capital and pushing up margins. This has not materialised. In this situation there is better value in other retailers.

Tokyu Store Chain is one of the few Japanese retail companies who are addressing their supply chain and working capital. The big kicker will come in the second half 06, as that is when their centralised distribution warehousing kicks-off. This is the key to them improving their working capital. We expect to see inventory and payable days reduced and wastage cut. They are also cutting staff count, which will contain wage costs despite store expansion and rising general wage pressures. Even so, they managed to post expanding operating margins in their recently announced first quarter results. We find it difficult to see the stock getting much cheaper at 0.17x p/sales for the year to March 2008.

Sedol Type Price Date
6896151 Sell JPY 443.685 22/10/2007
6896151 Buy JPY 682.338 10/11/2006
6896151 Buy JPY 686.781 09/11/2006
6896151 Buy JPY 701.314 08/11/2006
6896151 Buy JPY 706.932 07/11/2006
6896151 Buy JPY 695.955 06/11/2006
6896151 Buy JPY 699.976 02/11/2006
6896151 Buy JPY 699.476 01/11/2006
6896151 Buy JPY 702.00 31/10/2006
6896151 Buy JPY 704.778 30/10/2006
6896151 Buy JPY 705.886 27/10/2006

 

TPSA. Poland's dominant fixed line telephone operator, part owned by the government and France Telecom. Also involved in mobile. The scope for rationalisation is clear and the company has embarked on the same. A considerable upturn in the free cash flow yield is the inevitable consequence, whilst the unstable shareholding structure may mean it becomes a corporate takeover play. Moreover, the company undoubtedly benefits from the rapid growth in the Polish economy and personal consumption expenditure.

Sedol Type Price Date
5552551 Buy PLN 20.927 25/10/2006

 

Trusco has continually disappointed with poor quarterly results in succession, each time blamed on a different 'exceptional' development. The position was cut in this absence of confidence.

Trusco Nakayama is the leading wholesaler of mechanical tools in Japan. Hence it is a prime beneficiary of the current domestic upturn in investment and construction. Results have confirmed this trend with margins gaining the added benefit of an increasing ratio of sales from their own-branded products.

Sedol Type Price Date
6620888 Sell JPY 2328.966 13/06/2007
6620888 Buy JPY 2717.633 16/02/2006
6620888 Buy JPY 2562.986 14/11/2005

 

The dominant TV company in Hong Kong, TVB will benefit from any pick-up in advertising associated with higher consumption and arising from the 2008 Beijing Olympics. The real catalyst for a re-rating, however, is its back catalogue. TVB has the world's largest archive of Cantonese programming and the world's second largest of Mandarin. After years of trying, it is finally starting to sell these programmes into the Chinese mainland and is also now engaging in joint ventures with Chinese studios to produce content directly for Chinese TV.

Sedol Type Price Date
6881674 Buy HKD 51.981 09 August 2007

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